Mapping Malaria Risk Zones and Simulating Elimination Targets in Central Java Using K-Means Clustering and Exponential Decay Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65230/jitcos.v2i1.72Keywords:
Malaria, K-Means Clustering, Spatial Risk Mapping, Exponential DeclineAbstract
Malaria remains a public health challenge in Indonesia, including in Central Java Province, which still has areas with active transmission. This study aims to map malaria risk zones and simulate elimination time estimates using a hybrid K-Means clustering approach and an exponential decay model. Malaria case data from 2023 from 35 districts/cities were analyzed to identify regional clusters based on case burden. The clustering results showed three risk zones, with four areas Pati, Blora, Purworejo, and Semarang City included in the Red Zone, which accounted for 37.7% of total cases. Next, elimination simulations were conducted in the Red Zone using two scenarios: (1) Business as Usual with a 10% reduction in cases per year and (2) Accelerated Intervention with a 40% reduction per year. Modeling results showed that the first scenario would only achieve elimination after 2080, while the second scenario would enable elimination to be achieved around 2034. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted and intensive interventions in priority areas to accelerate the achievement of malaria elimination targets in Central Java.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Zahara Vonna, Siti Fadiyah Nabila, Salsabila Arifa Hasibuan, Mega Siti Nurhalizah (Author)
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